The new UK Government must soon clarify whether new diesel van sales will be banned by the end of the decade, according to Fleetcheck.
The software company said that while the Labour Party has pledged to reinstate the new ICE car ban in 2030, after the previous government moved it back to 2035, it was yet to say whether the move would also apply to vans.
Fleetcheck managing director Peter Golding said: “While electric car adoption by fleets has generally been a considerable success and the 2030 phase-out is absolutely viable, almost the opposite is true of electric vans.
“Compromises over range, payload and charging times mean that fleet sales of new electric vans are struggling to rise above 5% and there appears to be limited prospects of this changing dramatically unless that is some kind of unforeseen paradigm shift.”
Golding said that the objections fleets had to electric vans were purely practical, with their use for anything other than local, light duty work proving questionable.
“Fleets are looking at the ZEV mandate – which will see electric van production rise from 10% of sales this year to 70% by 2030 – alongside the potential 2030 production ban, and they just can’t foresee how the situation is going to be resolved.
“This is not a scenario where fleets are against zero emissions vehicles – almost all want to play their part in creating cleaner air and minimising the impact of climate change – but they believe that the electric vans on offer currently are simply not fit for their needs.
“For many fleets, 2030 is less than one typical van replacement cycle away, and the lack of certainty is leaving them in an almost impossible situation.”
Golding said there were three potential solutions that could start to move the dial substantially: taxation moves that provided an undeniable incentive for van electrification in the same manner as BIK taxation has done for electric cars; a massive improvement in electric van technology; or dramatically lower electric van pricing.
He continued: “The fact is that none of these developments are likely to happen, at least by 2030. There are not really any carrots that the government or manufacturers can offer that look likely to change the mind of fleets who are dead set against electrification on practical grounds.
“The only other option that remains in this situation is for the government to effectively tax diesel vans out of existence but, given the level of resistance from businesses, the VED rate imposed would have to be very high rather than simply tweaked. The question is whether the government would want to pursue what is likely to be a deeply unpopular policy.”
