The UK Government may need to revisit its ZEV mandate targets for vans as early as next year, according to software firm Fleetcheck.

New flexibilities for the mandate, which requires manufacturers to achieve a specified percentage of zero-emission vehicle sales each year, or risk fines, were announced earlier this month. However, the headline targets remained in place.

Fleetcheck managing director Peter Golding said that electric van sales in the first quarter of 2025 were less than half what was needed, and said there was no reason to believe they would improve dramatically soon.

He said: “The zero emissions target for the van market this year is 16% but even the best sales month we have seen so far has not exceeded 10%. There would have to be a decisive shift through Q2 to Q4 to hit the government’s target and there is no sign such a change is coming.

“For 2026, the target increases to 24% and again, it’s almost impossible to conceive that the market is going to gain the necessary momentum to get anywhere near that figure.

“The potential shortfall fines to manufacturers are now £15,000 per unit but the government insists that these will not need to be paid because of inbuilt flexibilities, including recent changes to allow trading off car versus van sales, but that’s just storing up further pressures for the future. It’s an exercise in can kicking, not a solution.”

Golding said that by carrying out its revisions earlier this month, the government had established that it would act to balance the health of the motor industry against its environmental policies.

He said: “It’s clearly a positive that the government has listened and made some changes to the ZEV mandate regulations but it also establishes a principle that they will make modifications to protect manufacturers and the wider sector. Having done this once, it seems probable they would do it again.

“By next year, it seems likely that it will become clear the gap between the real van market and ZEV mandate projections are unbridgeable, and that further action will have to be taken. 

“The underlying fault line which, to be fair, is one the government inherited, is that the ZEV mandate is supply side based, when what the electric van market needs is a boost to demand.”