With fewer vans entering the contract hire market in the second half of 2008, BCA said there are now fewer coming back to the used market on three year cycles.
The auction firm said contract extensions had further delayed stock reaching the market and added that when it finally does go under the hammer it is older, higher mileage and often in poor condition.
BCA’s CV boss Duncan Ward said: “We are now reaching the three year anniversary of the onset of decline in new LCV sales when the rolling annual figure fell from nearly 350,000 units in June 2008 to a low point of around 180,000 by the end of 2009.
“For the next 18 months to two years there is a potential for the market to be short of three-to-five year old one owner used stock.”
Ward forecast that if demand picked up in line with the expected economic recovery, prices would rise sharply.
“We are at the beginning of an extended supply squeeze in the used LCV market,” said Ward, “and ground zero in volume terms is still 18 months away.”
BCA said sales via its Live Online internet channel were approaching 30% of its total volume this year – up from 20% in 2010 and just 5% in 2009.
It claimed almost 6000 trade buyers logged on to buy vans at BCA last year with nearly £150 added to the value of every vehicle sold to Live Online bidders.
Double cab pick-ups were particularly popular with internet buyers last year – 37% were bought online.
